It's easy to love everyone in fantasy football land. Pretty much any given player has a theoretical path to success, and who really wants to use offseason time to tear down these finely tuned athletic machines?
Feel free to keep those rose-colored glasses on all you want —but today we're gonna mix in some negativity in the form of my biggest fantasy fades.
As easy as it would be to simply tell you all to avoid draftingMecole Hardman andKenneth Gainwell: We're sticking to players with anaverage draft position (APD) inside ESPN's top-100 overall players. Cool? Cool.
As always: It's a great day to be great.
Bad offense, meh talent, unlikely to get much pass-down work … but the man is jacked!
Raiders RB Zamir White (RB21, pick 78.9 APD)
The artist known as "Zeus" posted the following production In four games withoutJosh Jacobs:
- Week 15: 17-69-1 rushing, 3-16-0 receiving, 70% snaps, PPR RB12
- Week 16: 22-145-0 rushing, 0-0-0 receiving, 76% snaps, RB17
- Week 17: 20-71-0 rushing, 5-35-0 receiving, 57% snaps, RB16
- Week 18: 25-112-0 rushing, 1-9-0 receiving, 73% snaps, RB21
The receiving production and snap rates reflect the reality thatAmeer Abdullah or someone else will likely maintain involvement in pass-first situations, but hey: 20-plus touches per gameshould continue to go a long way in Fantasy Land, right? RIGHT?
Whiteshould be the backfield's clear leader more weeks than not, but it's not exactly a certainty.Alexander Mattison could share some early-down work (hopefully not goal line), while Abdullah and/orDylan Laube should see the majority of snaps in pass-first situations. Not exactly the most exhilarating situation to seek out inside of a backfield that ranked just 16th inexpected PPR points per game last season.
While White's affordable ADP doesn't exactly make him a traditional early-round "dead zone" RB, Ireally struggle to prioritize him ahead of similarly priced backs likeDavid Montgomery andJames Conner who have far more scoring upside, as well as guys likeJaylen Warren andJonathan Brooks who have more best-case three-down ability.
2023 was great and all … but are we positive this is a top-10 WR meow?
Rams WR Puka Nacua (WR7, pick 12.6 ADP)
Last season, Nacua andCooper Kupp played 12 full games together. They posted the following usage and production:
- Nacua: 100 targets, 66 receptions, 1,055 yards, 4 TD
- Kupp: 99 targets, 63 receptions, 753 yards, 5 TD
The superior counting numbers from Puka reflect the reality that the NFL's all-time leader in rookie year receiving yards (1,486) was pretty, pretty, pretty good. Then again, we only need to go back … one season to find the last time Kupp worked as fantasy's overall WR1 in PPR points per game. Suffering multiple sprained ankles and a pulled hammy since November 2022 is hardly ideal for projecting the 31-year-old veteran to start partying like it's 2021 again, but simply assuming that Kupp is now this offense's clear-cut No. 2 WR when healthy also doesn't make much sense.
Dec 21, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (17) catches a pass against New Orleans Saints safety Ugo Amadi (0) in the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
If anything, this group has the look of some of McVay's early Rams squads that regularly leaned on both Kupp andRobert Woods as their 1.A/1.B pass-game options. Things were split VERY evenly between Kupp (134, 124 targets) and the artist known as Bobby Trees (139, 129) during the 2019 and 2020 seasons before the former WR separated himself as THE guy in 2021.
I have a hard time taking Puka ahead of more clear-cut No. 1 WRs likeA.J. Brown,Garrett Wilson,Marvin Harrison Jr. andDrake London in Round 1, although it's tough to slide the reigning WR6 in PPR points per game too far down the ole fantasy ranks. Our consensus ranks have Puka as the WR6, WR6, WR8 … and WR10 from your boy. I'm a hater because I think Nacua is fantasy's 10th-best WR instead of the sixth. That's the world we live in.
Age cliff concerns from a declining WR dealing with likely horrendous QB play, is that something you might be interested in?
Raiders WR Davante Adams (WR9, pick 22.1 ADP)
Some might call me a Raiders hater for highlighting bothZamir White and nowDavante Adams as fades in this column. And that is totally not fair: I do NOT hate the Raiders, but I do think they boast the NFL's single-worst QB room.
Among 32 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks in 2023:
- EPA per dropback: Minshew (+0.022, 22nd), O’Connell (-0.038, 25th)
- Completion percentage over expected: Minshew (-3.3%, 31st), O’Connell (-3.9%, 32nd)
- PFF pass grade: Minshew (60.6, 27th), O’Connell (64.6, 25th)
- Passer rating: Minshew (84.6, 23rd), O’Connell (83.9, 25th)
- Yards per attempt: Minshew (6.7, 23rd), O’connell (6.5, 25th)
Peep that second stat from the top:Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell were arguably the two least accurate QBs in all of football last season.
Of course, things weren't all that different for Adams last season. B-e-a-utiful double-moves that created all sorts of separation were constantly met withinaccurate deep balls. Ultimately, Adams (54) led the NFL in total targets that were deemed uncatchable by PFF.
The age cliff is here. It's tough to drop any man with a realistic potential to see 150-plus targets too far down the ranks, but I struggle to prioritize the veteran over younger ascending talents likeMarvin Harrison Jr. andChris Olave, who both have similar target ceilings in offenses led by far more proven QBs. There's also far more target competition in Las Vegas, even if Adams still comfortably projects as the No. 1 option.
Beware of new coaching staffs
Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker (RB17, pick 47.2 ADP)
Walker's short NFL career has produced 2,379 total yards and 18 trips to the end zone in a pair of 15-game seasons. The former second-round pick has flashed some true big-play ability along the way, although his boom-or-bust rushing style has also led to one of the position'shigher stuff rates.
While Walker deserves some slack in terms of efficiency numbers due to having over twice as many rush attempts as Charbonnet last season, the rising second-year talent has the edge in basically everything other than forcing missed tackles (which I would argue is simply more descriptive of rushing style than anything):
- Yards per carry: Charbonnet (4.3), Walker (4.1)
- Yards over expected per carry: Charbonnet (+0.18), Walker (-0.13)
- Yard after contact per carry: Charbonnet (3), Walker (2.9)
- Missed tackles forced per carry: Charbonnet (0.16), Walker (0.26)
- Explosive run rate: Charbonnet (15%), Walker (11%)
- Stuff rate: Charbonnet (17%), Walker (21%)
Does this coaching staff overly care about any of this? Probably not, but the idea that the backs are both, you know, good football players lends credence to the idea that this could be more of a committee in 2024.
Fantasy Life Projections are certainly leaning toward more of a split than last year, as Walker (198 carries, 33 targets) has the overall lead, but Charbonnet (122 carries, 40 targets) profiles as a quality backup and potential primary pass-down option.
Oct 15, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (9) celebrates a touchdown during the first quarter against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
Walker is a Round 4 pick in re-draft land at the moment priced alongside potential game-breaking QBs and TEs as well as upside WR2 options likeDeebo Samuel,Jaylen Waddle andCooper Kupp among others. Is Walker's expected role and scoring upside really THAT much different than guys likeJames Conner,Najee Harris or evenZack Moss? You better believe it is to warrant selecting him four rounds earlier in current fantasy drafts.
We are playing FANTASY football, not ranking real-life players
Texans QB C.J. Stroud (QB5, pick 43.9 ADP)
The fantasy results from Stroud's rookie campaign were certainly great relative to his non-existent pre-season ADP, but Stroud's average of 18.3 fantasy points per game (QB8) trailed guys likeJordan Love,Kirk Cousins andBrock Purdy. There were indeed some opportunitiesleft on the table even if there wereplenty of dazzling throws along the way.
Of course, the addition of longtime Bills No. 1 WRStefon Diggs gives Stroud the same sort of early-career improvement on the outside that has helped so many QBs make a mega leap. FromKyler Murray (DeAndre Hopkins), toJoe Burrow (Ja'Marr Chase), toJalen Hurts (A.J. Brown) among others: Don't underestimate the potential for now one of the game's best WR rooms to help take this offense's production to another level in 2024.
Don't get it twisted: Stroud just tied for the league-high in 300-plus yard passing games with six despite missing two games; things were already going pretty damn fine before the Texans added Diggs to the equation. Still, it's this reality that makes it a bit tough to get behind Stroud's current standing as the QB6 (pick 58.6) in early ADP:He and Patrick Mahomes are the only QBs going inside the top-80 picks who didn't rack up at least 28% of their 2023 fantasy production on the ground in 2023.
Stroud is the MAN as a passer, but in fantasy football land that doesn't mean as much in today's game littered with dual-threat beasts. It's tough to overly argue with Stroud's positional ranking; just realize there are far more discount versions of him in the form ofJoe Burrow,Jared Goff andMatthew Stafford among others than there are for the ultra-mobile aliens also populating the position's upper tier.
New team, a year older, and a worse offense, but otherwise yay!
Vikings RB Aaron Jones (RB18, pick 60.9 ADP)
WhileFather Time is coming for Jones (30 next December), the longtime stud looked better than ever down the stretch of last season upon returning from a hamstring injury:
- Week 16: 21 carries-127 rush yards-0 TD
- Week 17: 20-120-0
- Week 18: 22-111-0
- Wild Card: 21-118-3
- Divisional Round: 18-108-0
Jones was his usual efficient self on the ground all season long, ranking eighth in EPA per rush and yards per carry in 2023 (including playoffs). Going from thePFF’s 11th-ranked offensive line to their 12th should hopefully be a fairly smooth transition.
The main two problems:
- Scoring upside. The Green Bay offense was playing as well as any group in the league down the stretch of last season … andSam Darnold is the current betting favorite to be under center come Week 1 for the Vikings.
- Pass-game usage. Kevin O’Connell has taken a page out of his old boss Sean McVay’s book and largely refrained from featuring his RBs in the passing game: The Vikings join the Ravens and Rams as the only three teams averaging fewer than 75 total targets to their RBs over the past two seasons.
There isn't much backfield competition here outside ofTy Chandler, but are wepositive past production warrants A-aron going 30-to-40 picks ahead of similar archetypes likeJaylen Warren andTony Pollard? I'm not, and accordingly prefer elite TEs likeGeorge Kittle andDalton Kincaid in addition to young stud WRs likeZay Flowers andMalik Nabers in the same price range.
He's hurt, dog
Browns RB Nick Chubb (RB28, pick 96.3 ADP)
Honestly, it feels a bit like cheating to list Chubb here, but his inside-the-top-100 ADP on ESPN and even Yahoo shocked me. Something closer to pick 150 seems to weight the injury risk here more properly — it's wild to me that guys likeJayden Reed,Christian Kirk,Zack Moss,Raheem Mostert,Tony Pollard and all the Chiefs WRs are going behind Chubb following last season's catastrophic multi-ligament knee injury.
Sam Sherman’s excellentPUP-candidate breakdown over at Establish The Run featuredDr. Edwin Porras stating that 10 months may be the minimum return-to-play timeline for Chubb’s specific injury, as opposed to nine months for a clean tear. This sentiment is echoed by otherlearned doctors: Chubb’s multi-ligament injury requiredtwo separate surgeries and places him inuncharted territory.
While there is some hope for a “full recovery” by Week 1, this injury could be a true issue for Chubb in thelong-term even if he does manage to get back to looking like 90% of his usual baller self in 2024. Of course, many RBs would LOVE to simply be 90% as good as Chubb; just realize this could be problematic to his fantasy upside considering the Browns haven’t exactly handed him the world’s most fantasy-friendly role over the years:
- 2022: RB18 inexpected PPR points per game, RB8 in real PPR points per game
- 2021: RB20 expected, RB12 real
- 2020: RB28 expected, RB9 real
Maybe Chubb does his bestAdrian Peterson impression and manages to dominate like nothing happened. He did come back from another severe multi-ligament tear during his days at Georgia, but count me out of finding out at any ADP going inside the top 13 or so rounds of fantasy drafts.
